Cast Aluminum Alloy Continues to Fluctuate at Highs, Downstream Consumption Resilience Remains [SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy]

12.9 SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment

Futures: The most-traded cast aluminum alloy ad2601 futures contract opened at 21,135 yuan/mt overnight, fell to a low of 20,850 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 20,985 yuan/mt, down 155 yuan/mt or 0.73% from the previous close. Trading volume was 1,822 and open interest was 2,312. This week, it formed a bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow, which touched the previous high of 21,390 yuan/mt before pulling back, indicating strong resistance above and insufficient bullish momentum in the short term. The K value was 64.90, the D value was 65.71, and the J value was 63.29, all within the neutral range of 50-80, not entering overbought or oversold territory, with no clear trend signal.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on December 8, the SMM ADC12 spot price showed a theoretical premium of 665 yuan/mt over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract (ad2601) at 10:15.

Warrant Daily Report: SHFE data showed that on December 8, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 66,558 mt, an increase of 122 mt from the previous trading day. Among them, the total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,757 mt, unchanged from the previous day; the total registered volume in Guangdong was 21,224 mt, an increase of 122 mt from the previous day; the total registered volume in Jiangsu was 11,509 mt, an increase of 570 mt from the previous day; the total registered volume in Zhejiang was 22,340 mt, unchanged from the previous day; the total registered volume in Chongqing was 6,308 mt, unchanged from the previous day; the total registered volume in Sichuan was 420 mt, unchanged from the previous day.

Aluminum Scrap: On Monday, spot primary aluminum prices fell from the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at 21,920 yuan/mt, and the aluminum scrap market followed the decline collectively. Baled UBC was concentrated quoted at 16,350-16,850 yuan/mt (ex-tax), shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) was concentrated quoted at 18,300-18,850 yuan/mt (ex-tax). Baled UBC was down 100 yuan/mt MoM, while clean tapping aluminum wire, mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint, mechanical casting aluminum scrap, scrap motorcycle wheel, and mixed aluminum tense scrap were down 100-200 yuan/mt MoM. The aluminum scrap market is expected to hover at highs this week, with the mainstream range for shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) at 18,500-19,200 yuan/mt (ex-tax). The overall tug-of-war between sellers and buyers continues, and it is necessary to closely track fluctuations in primary aluminum, environmental protection policies, and downstream procurement pace, while being wary of the risk of a pullback from highs.

Silicon Metal: On December 8, SMM non-oxygen blown #553 silicon metal in east China was at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 was at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt; #521 was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt; #441 was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt; #421 was at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use was at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt; #3303 was at 10,300-10,500 yuan/mt. Silicon metal prices in Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Shanghai, and north-west China also declined synchronously. Kunming and Sichuan silicon prices held steady.

Overseas market: Driven by tight aluminum scrap supply, current Southeast Asian market ADC12 offers rose rapidly to $2,640–2,660/mt, with the import arbitrage loss widening to above 400 yuan/mt, further suppressing import window activity.

Inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of December 8, the weekly social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in the three major consumption areas—Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi—totaled 49,218 mt, down 269 mt from the previous trading day.

Summary: Spot side, the previous trading day's SMM A00 aluminum spot price fell 170 yuan/mt to 21,920 yuan/mt, while the ADC12 price dropped 100 yuan/mt to 21,600 yuan/mt. The pullback in aluminum prices from highs pushed down the cost side for aluminum scrap, and the spot market showed a broad decline. Demand side, short-term aluminum price volatility intensified, inhibiting downstream procurement pace; some die-casting enterprises faced squeezed profits due to cost pressures, even falling into losses, leading to a decline in operating rates. However, year-end terminal push for volume still provided support to the industry. Overall, the ADC12 price is expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.

[Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.]